Since the start of the year, we have seen that the annual change in China Total Social Financing (TSF) 12 Sum has been shrinking rapidly, which could eventually become a problem for risky assets. Previous periods of sharp contraction in China TSF (i.e. 2018) have been associated with a sudden rise in risk-off assets such as USD or US Treasuries. Figure 1 shows that the annual change in China TSF 12M Sum fell from over 10tr CNY in October to 3.1tr CNY April.
Interestingly, we can notice that that a contraction in Chinese ‘liquidity’ has usually been followed by a fall in US long-term bond yields. For instance, figure 2 shows the 6M change in US 10Y Treasury yield with the 6M change in China 12M sum (8M lead). According to this chart, the consolidation the US 10Y yield has just begun.
Copper was one of the major assets to benefit from the constant liquidity injections from central banks to prevent economies from falling into a deflationary depression. The front-month futures contract has more than doubled since its March low of 2.06 and is currently trading at 4.3, its highest level since August 2011.
However, we have also seen that copper prices (and other commodities heavily relying on Chinese economy) has been very sensitive to the annual change in China Total Social Financing (TSF). This chart shows that the annual change in China TSF 12M sum has been falling for the past 4 months, which has previously been associated with a correction in copper prices and other base metals. Can the momentum in copper continue without Chinese stimulus?
In the past year, Tesla has been one of the main companies that benefited from the significant surge in global liquidity, which we calculate as the sum of the total assets of the 5 major central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, BoE). The left chart shows that the 8-trillion-dollar rise in global liquidity last year levitated Tesla’s stock price from $100 to over $800, and the upside could be limited in the short run amid rising optimism over the vaccination campaign and the reopening of the economy as warmer days are getting closer.
What would Tesla share price be worth if we were to remove the 8tr USD of liquidity added in 2020? (most likely much lower…)
In the past few months, gold has been showing some signs of ‘fatigue’ with market participants starting to price in a smooth ‘Covid-19 exit’ with the vaccination campaign. However, major drivers of the precious metal such real interest rates or the total amount of negative-yielding debt are still sending bullish signals; we think that market participants are underestimating the impact of social distancing and travel restrictions in the medium term.
With another 3tr USD of liquidity expected to reach market this year, it looks like the downside risk on gold remains limited as we think that most economies will rely on debt (therefore more liquidity) in the coming two years, which implies strong demand for the ‘currency of the last resort’.
Main risks in the near term: rising optimism over the vaccine campaign, warmer days and USD strength.
One striking observation we can notice in the past cycle has been the speed at which the equity market recovers each time it experiences a significant drawdown (> 10%). For instance, while it took it took 7 years and 3 months and 5 years and 6 months in the past two economic recessions for the S&P 500 to recover to its previous highs, US equities recovered to their February 2020 peak in just 6 months after crashing by over 35% during the Covid19 panic.
As we previously mentioned, the drastic rise in liquidity to finance the high cost of lockdowns has been one of the major forces behind that historic rebound, and that a repeat of the 1930s period with stocks having a period of hope followed by a drastic selloff will be very unlikely this time.
Hence, market participants have constantly tried to buy the dip each time the market was experiencing a selloff. Figure 2 (left frame) shows that people were looking to buy stocks at the heart of the panic regardless of how dramatic the impact of Covid19 will be on the economic activity, especially on the service sector. Even though it has not always been a successful strategy in the past 100 years, ‘buy the dip’ has been a winning trade in the past 25 years (to the exception of 2002, 2008 and 2018); figure 2 (right frame) shows the average weekly performance of the S&P 500 following a negative week. If investors bought the dip in 2019 and 2020, they would have generated a positive average performance of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.
With another 3 trillion USD expected to reach markets this year (at least), we think that the ‘buy the dip’ strategy will prevail in the near to medium term.
In the past 15 years, we have seen that the dynamics of the exchange rate in Japan (JPY) has had a significant impact on equities; it has been described as a negative ‘Pavlovian’ relationship where a cheaper currency has usually been associated with higher equities. This chart shows the significant co-movement between Japanese equities – TOPIX – and the USDJPY exchange rate; hence, we are confident that policymakers in Japan are strongly aware of that relationship and therefore the BoJ is carefully and constantly watching the exchange rate.
It is interesting to see while the Japanese Yen has been constantly appreciating against the US Dollar amid the aggressive liquidity injections from the Fed (relative to BoJ), equities have strongly recovered from their March lows and are currently trading at their highest level since October 2018. However, we do not think that this relationship will persist in the medium term; as we previously mentioned, a strong Yen will not only dramatically impact the economic ‘recovery’ but also weigh on LT inflation expectations. The last time the relationship broke down between the two times series was in the beginning of 2018, with the TOPIX rising to nearly 1900 while the Yen was gradually strengthening against the USD, but it did not take long for equities to converge back to their ‘fair’ value.
We are not suggesting that trend in equities is about to revert, but investors should be careful as the ‘Short USD / Long The Rest’ trade has become very crowded.
Even though some analysts have compared the 2020 rebound in equities to the 1930 ‘hope’ phase following the 1929 crash, we think that this year has shown some strong similarities with the 1998 / 1999 period. While tech stocks were experiencing strong inflows in the second half of the 1990s amid the dotcom boom, the Nasdaq suddenly fell by 30% in the third quarter of 1998, before starting to reach new highs and surging by over 120% in the following year.
This year, tech companies’ valuations are up 90% in the past 9 months following their dip reached on March 23rd and seem on their way to reach new all-time highs in the coming months as another 3 trillion USD is expected to reach markets in the coming year.
This chart shows some strong co-movements between the Nasdaq index in 1996 – 2000 and in August 2018 – December 2020. Even though market sentiment has reached extreme levels, the bullish trend in mega-cap growth stocks could easily continue for another year amid the surge in liquidity coming from central banks to support the economies and finance the high costs of lockdowns.
As we previously saw, the massive liquidity injection from major central banks to prevent the economies from falling into a global deflationary depression has generated a significant rebound in equities prices, especially for the mega-cap growth stocks. Figure 1 shows that the FANG+ index is trading over 50% higher than its February high, which was mainly driven by the surge in global liquidity.
In addition, the major 5 central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC and BoE) are expected to increase their balance sheet by another 5 trillion USD in the coming 2 years, to a total of 33 trillion USD, to cover the high costs of national lockdowns. As a result, ‘Wall Street’ strategists have constantly reviewed their SP500 forecasts for 2021 to the upside in recent months, with the average forecast rising to 4,035 in December according to Bloomberg.
With central banks ‘ready to act’ as soon as we see a sudden tightening in financial conditions (due to a drop in equities), the risk reward in the SP500 is currently skewed to the upside with all the liquidity injections expected to reach markets in the coming months.
Even though a significant amount of investors have become increasingly worried about the current state of the equity market and how ‘extremely stretched’ the equity positioning has been in recent weeks, they must not underestimate the force of the liquidity injections coming from central banks. Figure 1 shows the evolution of the major 5 central banks’ assets since 2002 (Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC and BoE); after rising by over 7 trillion USD since March, assets of the top 5 central banks are expected to grow by another USD 5tr in the coming two years up to USD 33tr in order to support the high costs of running restrictive economies to fight the pandemic.
Therefore, although some fundamental ratios such as price-to-sales or the traditional P/E ratio have reached stratospheric levels for some companies and also for the entire equity indexes (for instance, Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio was of 33.1 in November, far above its 140-year average of 17.1), the constant liquidity injections could continue to support the equity market in the near to medium term, especially the FANG+ stocks. Figure 2 shows the strong co-movement between the total assets from the major 5 central banks and the FANG+ index; we can notice that the titanic rise in central banks assets has ‘perfectly’ matched the strong rebound in the mega-cap growth stocks in the past 8 months.
With 5 trillion USD of assets expected to be added in the coming 24 months, is it really time to be bearish on tech stocks? Figure 2
In the past few years, a significant amount of economists and practitioners have warned of a potential hard landing in the Australian housing market, as property prices have been growing at unsustainable rates with first-home buyers having difficulties saving a significant deposit to get a foothold in the market. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the total value of residential property in Australia is now exceeding 7 trillion USD, by far the economy’s largest asset. As there are no ‘vehicles’ to short the Australian housing market as during the US subprime crisis, two alternative ways to short the property market was through either going short the Australian Dollar or short the banks. Prior the Covid19 crisis, banks’ mortgages were equivalent to approximately 80% of the country’ GDP, with most of them piled into the top 4 banks (Commonwealth, WestPac, ANZ and NAB).
Even though house prices were starting to decline significantly in 2018 and the beginning of 2019, with investors speculating that it was the start of the ‘hard landing’, the reversal in the global stance of monetary policy (from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing) combined with the surge in Chinese liquidity have generated strong support for the Australian property market in the past year. This chart shows an interesting co-movement between China excess liquidity (6M lead), which we compute as the difference between real M1 money growth and industrial production, and the Australian housing market. It seems that the downside risk in the Aussie property market should remain limited as money growth keeps accelerating in China.