Phillips Curve and Wage Inflation Dynamics

Abstract: Debates around the Phillips curve, a long-time relationship between unemployment and wage inflation, have been haunting both academics and practitioners over the past few years. Despite unemployment rate at its lowest level in decades, wage growth has been weak in most of the developed countries. There can be various factors that may be playing a part, ranging from a collapse in the rate of union membership for private-sector employees to a higher concentration of large firms (employers have become monopsonists, impacting level of wages). Therefore, in this article, we review the development of the Phillips Curves in the major development economies and look at the short-run and long-run determinants of wage inflation according to recent empirical research.

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Rising US corporate default rates during a tightening monetary policy cycle

In this study, we mainly focus on the refinancing issues that US [non-financial] companies will face within the next five years as a lot of corporations are trading at a distressed price (or yield) due to the lack of global growth and low commodity prices. In the first session, we review the US credit market structure. Then, the second session introduces a two-state Markov switching model (Hamilton, 1989), followed by a presentation of the paper Corporate bond default risk: a 150-year perspective (Giesecke & al., 2011), a study that uses a set of macroeconomic and financial variables to forecast default rates in the US. In the third Section, we comment the potential change in the explanatory variables since 2009 and we discuss a solution to avoid a new clustered default event over the next five years.

Link ==> Studies on Corporate Defaults

Studies on Gold and its relationship with other financial variables

Abstract: Define as the currency of the last resort, gold has historically been seen as the ultimate hedge against inflation. However, recent research has founded that the commodity provides a unique source of diversification to an investor’s portfolio. This study investigates the long-run relationship between gold and a set of financial variables based on daily data from January 1990 to June 2016, then use this relationship as a fair value and see what sort of interpretation we can do with the results.

Link ===> Gold Study

Excel data ===> LastGoldData

Cointegration in Forex Pairs Trading

Abstract: Forex pairs trading strategy that implements cointegration is a sort of convergence trading strategy based on statistical arbitrage using a mean-reversion logic. This strategy was first introduced by Morgan Stanley in the 1980s using stock pairs, but traders found that it could be used in FX trading as well. The goal of this research is to review the cointegration in the FX market using three different approaches – Engle-Granger, Johansen test and the Hurst exponent – with some application in Eviews and Bloomberg. One fundamental property that pairs trading requires is that the instruments have to be cointegrated in order to ensure a connection between two FX currency pairs.

 Link ===>FX Cointegration

Excel data (not logged) ===>FXCurrencies10