In the past few months, the strong deceleration in the Chinese economic activity combined with the sharp contraction in ‘liquidity’ (Total Social Financing 12M Sum YoY change) have been weighing on the Aussie against major crosses. After peaking at 0.80 in February against the USD, the Aussie has been constantly testing new lows and is now down nearly 10% against the greenback.
AUD is now the most undervalued (-15%) currency among the G10 world according to our BEER model, which uses terms of trade, inflation and 10Y interest rate differentials as explanatory variables to compute the ‘fair’ value of currencies.
The second most undervalued currency is ‘risk-on’ GBP, standing at -13.2% from its ‘fair’ value. The rise in volatility combined with the deceleration in global liquidity have been weighing on Sterling in recent months.
On the other hand, the CHF is the most overvalued currencies against the USD (+7.7%) according to our BEER model, followed by the EUR (+3.8%). It is interesting to see that the Euro, which appears significantly undervalued from a PPP approach (PPP estimates the ‘fair’ value of EURUSD at 1.41 – implying that the EUR is over 18% undervalued), is now overvalued using a BEER approach.