Abstract: In this study, we introduce Danske’s Medium Term FX Evaluation model (MEVA G10 FX), a framework that falls within the class of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) models. An important concept of the BEER model is that there is no prior theory for the choice of economic variables; hence, the choice of variables is based on economic intuition and data simplicity and availability.
Using two medium-term G10 FX drivers – a gauge of the Balassa-Samuelson effect and the terms of trade – we run a Fixed-Effect panel regression on the G10 currencies, using the US Dollar and the Euro as the base currencies.
PDF LINK ===========================> MEVA G10
EXCEL DATA LINK ====================> MENA FX – Quarterly Data
EXCEL (BALASSA – SAMUELSON) DATA ===> PennEffect
Results of our study (FX Q1 2018 spot rates were from mid-february)