Quick update on FX positioning

The US dollar remains strong against all the currencies since yesterday, erasing little by little its post-minutes losses. EURUSD is back to 1.2660, the trend looks bearish and we would set our short term target at 1.2600. A bit late for bears (above 1.2750 was a perfect level to short the pair again), but there is little room for the downside. I’d play short EUR/GBP at 0.7900; a GBP strength relative to the Euro is inevitable, long-term bears just have to be patient for the 0.7500 retracement.

AUDUSD is back to 0.8700 (beginning of the week’s level), despite strong employment reports yesterday in Australia, with full time employment up to 21.6K in September (from 14.3 the previous month). We read that global growth worries will continue to weigh on the Aussie (with always the same story with China’s) slowdown, and the market clearly sees an Aussie trading at 80 cents against the greenback sometime in mid-2015. Next support on the downside stands at 0.8650 (we’ll see if it holds this time).

On the Yen side, we clearly think the bearish USDJPY momentum is not over yet and the JPY should continue to strengthen in the short until we see the big buyers-on-dips. The next support on the downside stands at 107.14, which corresponds to the lower band of the Bollinger Band (20,2x), followed by the psychological 107.

Bonus Chart before US opens:


(Source: Reuters)

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