The storm on the Euro also impacted the value of the British pound after Draghi’s speech in Brussels last month. Cable is now approaching its strong psychological support level at 1.6700 where there could potentially be some ‘buyers on dip’.
On the UK side, the BoE MPC met on Thursday but as expected nothing new concerning its monetary policy was released. The BoE is still seen as the first major bank to start raising rates in early 2015 (probably Q2); therefore investors are still interested in playing the monetary policies divergence between the major central banks (short EUR/GBP is a popular medium term position to hold at the moment). In addition, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimated today that the UK economy have eventually surpassed the pre-recession peak it reached in January 2008 after more than 6 years. NIESR are forecasting a 0.9% growth in the March-May period (tight slowdown compared to the 1.1% estimated between February and April), which would mean that the level of UK GDP stands 0.2% above where it was in January 2008. With an economy that almost faced a triple-dip recession in 2013, Britain has taken much longer time to recover compare to other ‘strong’ economies such as Germany or the US (both returned to pre-cisis level in 2010).
If we have a quick look at the economic indicators, we saw last week that Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMIs all stood well above the 50 (expansion / contraction) level at 57.0, 60.0 and 58.6 respectively. Moreover, industrial and manufacturing output both came in higher-than-expected at 3.0% YoY (vs 2.8% expected) and 4.4% YoY (vs 4.0% consensus) in April.
The rebound we have since in the US yields since the lows reached in the end of May helped the greenback recover against the major currencies this week. The graph below shows you one of Cable’s main drivers, the 2-year UK-US spread (in red). As you can see it, the spread narrowed by 10 bps since the end of May and now sits at 0.291%, which pushed Cable (in Yellow) down by 120 pips to 1.6750.
Based on this analysis, we will try to buy Cable at around 1.6720/30 for a test back towards 1.6800 (at first) with a stop loss at 1.6680 (below its 100-day MA at 1.6688).